2019 NFL Predictive Mock Draft

Finally, Draft day is here. The process leading up to it always feels way too long, but once it gets here, it's all worth it. It's always fun to try and guess what each team will do with their first round picks. I'm not going to pretend like I have any insight or actual knowledge of why each team would take who they do, but based on what trusted NFL insiders say, the understanding of each team's needs, and which prospects each team has shown interest in, I tried to mock the first round of the NFL Draft. Let's see how close I can get (predictive trades included). 

Analysis

- Arizona going elsewhere at #1. I don't think the front office there has much clue what they're doing, and was hinting at Kyler Murray all offseason to get teams to try and trade up there for him. Their bluff finally comes to an end, and they take debatably the best player in the draft in Quinnen Williams. 

- The run of QBs in picks 3-6. The last minute report is that Washington is interested in a QB and wants to go get him, and Haskins could be the guy. If they make this trade, the rest of the teams interested in QB will panic and go get their guy, causing a quick run at the top for all 4 of the top QBs. 

- The Jets traded back to 15 in this mock, but then went up to 12 to get a falling Josh Allen. If this is how it works out for New York, it would be an all-time draft day team win, considering they might've taken Josh Allen at 3 if they didn't move.

- Montez Sweat's heart condition was cleared and shouldn't be a worry, but don't put it past NFL teams to shy away from risking their first pick in the draft on someone with any medical issues. New York already got their QB, so they take the risk, even if it's not as risky as it sounds. 

- Jawaan Taylor should probably go higher, but the way the draft falls, sometimes top players don't go where there value should probably put them. He ends up in a great situation for his skill set in Carolina. 

- The Patriots love to trade out of their annual late first round pick. They'll wait until the last second to see how the board falls, but ultimately they move a few spots back and gain draft capital, while Indianapolis uses the pick they got from the Jets last year to go get A.J. Brown and bolster their receiving corps. 

I reiterate that I don't know shit and am completely guessing on these picks, but it's always fun to see how close you can get. Merry Draftmas everyone, and don't be surprised if Brett Veach and the Chiefs find a way to trade up into the back end of Day 1 if a guy they really like falls far enough. 

2019 NFL Draft Positional Rankings

Before we get into the rankings, I just want to preface with the information that I did not watch equal amounts of film or spend equal amount of time evaluating every player listed. I used the opinions and analysis of draft evaluators I follow and trust to determine my final preferences at each position. I only say that for full transparency, because I have formed my own opinion on the majority of these players through my own scouting methods. These rankings are based on how likely the player is to succeed in the NFL. I did not look at the TE and ILB positions enough to form a top 10. That being said, here are my official positional rankings for the 2019 NFL Draft Class.

P.S. I don't scout offensive linemen. I'll get there for future draft classes though!

QB

1. Kyler Murray - Oklahoma
2. Drew Lock - Missouri
3. Dwayne Haskins - Ohio State
4. Will Grier - West Virginia
5. Tyree Jackson - Buffalo
6. Daniel Jones - Duke
7. Jordan Ta'amu - Ole Miss
8. Brett Rypien - Boise State
9. Kyle Shurmur - Vanderbilt
10. Ryan Finley - NC State

RB

1. Josh Jacobs - Alabama
2. Darrell Henderson - Memphis
3. David Montgomery - Iowa State
4. Miles Sanders - Penn State
5. Justice Hill - Oklahoma State
6. Devin Singletary - Florida Atlantic
7. Dexter Williams - Notre Dame
8. Devine Ozigbo - Nebraska
9. Rodney Anderson - Oklahoma
10. Alex Barnes - Kansas State

WR

1. Hakeem Butler - Iowa State
2. D.K. Metcalf - Ole Miss
3. N'Keal Harry - Arizona State
4. A.J. Brown - Ole Miss
5. Deebo Samuel - South Carolina
6. Marquise Brown - Oklahoma
7. Parris Campbell - Ohio State
8. J.J. Arcega-Whiteside - Stanford
9. Riley Ridley - Georgia
10. Kelvin Harmon - NC State

TE

1. T.J. Hockensen - Iowa
2. Noah Fant - Iowa
3. Jace Sternberger - Texas A&M
4. Irv Smith Jr. - Alabama
5. Dawson Knox - Ole Miss

EDGE

1. Nick Bosa - Ohio State
2. Clelin Ferrell - Clemson
3. Brian Burns - Florida State
4. Josh Allen - Kentucky
5. Montez Sweat - Mississippi State
6. Jachai Polite - Florida
7. Christian Miller - Alabama
8. Chase Winovich - Michigan
9. Rashan Gary - Michigan
10. Charles Omenihu - Texas

IDL

1. Quinnen Williams - Alabama
2. Ed Oliver - Houston
3. Jeffery Simmons - Mississippi State
4. Jerry Tillery - Notre Dame
5. Christian Wilkins - Clemson
6. Khalen Saunders - Western Illinois
7. Dre'Mont Jones - Ohio State
8. Dexter Lawrence - Clemson
9. Daniel Wise - Kansas
10. Renell Wren - Arizona State

ILB

1. Devin Bush - Michigan
2. Devin White - LSU
3. Ben Burr-Kirven - Washington
4. Blake Cashman - Minnesota
5. Drue Tranquill - Notre Dame

CB

1. Greedy Williams - LSU
2. DeAndre Baker - Georgia
3. Amari Oruwariye - Penn State
4. Rock Ya-Sin - Temple
5. Byron Murphy - Washington
6. Julian Love - Notre Dame
7. Sean Bunting - Central Michigan
8. Justin Layne - Michigan State
9. Isaiah Johnson - Houston
10. JoeJuan Williams - Vanderbilt

S

1. Chauncey Gardner-Johnson - Florida

2. Nasir Adderley - Delaware
3. Darnell Savage - Maryland
4. Deionte Thompson - Alabama
5. Juan Thornhill - Virginia
6. Amani Hooker - Iowa
7. Taylor Rapp - Washington
8. Jonathan Abram - Mississippi State
9. Marquise Blair - Utah
10. Mike Edwards - Kentucky

When comparing my opinion to the overall draft community's, there's a few things that stand out:

1. I am not as high on Byron Murphy as most people are. I don't believe he has shutdown CB1 ability, but should still be a starter and a good one if put in the best position for his skillset.

2. I am lower on Josh Allen and Rashan Gary than most. I think Josh Allen could be a great player when played in the right spot, but his upside as a pure pass rusher isn't as high as the players above him. Gary is a polarizing player in the draft community, and I tend to agree with the fact that his college production is worrisome. If he's such a great player, why wasn't he able to produce like even his former Wolverine teammate?

3. Hakeem Butler is the best WR in the draft. I understand there are traits to be worried about, like his bad habit of dropping passes, but the rest of his game is too much to pass over. It may just be the fact that they wear the same number, but he looks like A.J. Green to me.

4. I am high on Devine Ozigbo. I was first introduced to him by listening to The Draft Dudes podcast, a The Draft Network podcast, where he did an interview with the hosts and impressed me with his intelligence and ability to speak to multiple run schemes, even schemes he hadn't played in a lot in college. His film impressed me further, and I think he's a steal waiting to happen later in the draft.

5. Drew Lock > Dwayne Haskins. The consensus seems to be that Haskins is the better pro prospect, but I think Lock's arm talent, natural play making ability, and confidence in himself could come together to form a good starting NFL QB. I just hope it's not for Denver.

I will have a Predictive Mock Draft on here before the 1st round begins Thursday night. Thanks everybody for reading, and Happy NFL Draft week!

Looking at the 2019 Schedule

The official regular season schedule for the 2019 Chiefs has been released.

1 Sun, Sep 8 at Jacksonville 12:00 PM
2 Sun, Sep 15 at Oakland 3:05 PM
3 Sun, Sep 22 Baltimore 12:00 PM
4 Sun, Sep 29 at Detroit 12:00 PM
5 Sun, Oct 6 Indianapolis 7:20 PM (NBC Sunday Night Football)
6 Sun, Oct 13 Houston 12:00 PM
7 Thu, Oct 17 at Denver 7:20 PM  (Fox Thursday Night Football)
8 Sun, Oct 27 Green Bay 7:20 PM (NBC Sunday Night Football)
9 Sun, Nov 3 Minnesota 12:00 PM
10 Sun, Nov 10 at Tennessee 12:00 PM
11 Mon, Nov 18 at L.A. Chargers 7:15 PM (ESPN Monday Night Football in Mexico)
12 *BYE
13 Sun, Dec 1 Oakland 12:00 PM
14 Sun, Dec 8 at New England 3:25 PM
15 Sun, Dec 15 Denver 12:00 PM
16 Sun, Dec 22 at Chicago 7:20 PM (NBC Sunday Night Football)
17 Sun, Dec 29 L.A. Chargers 12:00 PM

Initial takeaways:

- Open with 3 out of 4 games on the road for the 2nd consecutive year.
- All 3 divisional games at home are in December
- Late Bye week is an advantage for teams needing to make a run down the stretch
- 5 primetime games plus the Patriots game in the CBS 3:25 national window. They are still eligible for another game to be flexed to primetime.

Most important games of the season:

Week 5 vs. Indianapolis (SNF)

- The first primetime game of the season, and only 1 of 2 primetime games at Arrowhead. The Chiefs beat the Colts in last year's divisional round. The Colts look to be AFC contenders, and winning this game would be a good tone setter for the Chiefs' Super Bowl aspirations. 

Week 11 @ Los Angeles Chargers (MNF Mexico)

- The first game against L.A. , who will most likely be strongly contending for the AFC West like last year. The game will be the 2nd consecutively on the road, and the last contest before the Bye week. Fatigue may be a factor in this game. It is important that the Chiefs get the initial edge on the division against the Chargers, especially because the Week 17 matchup may not matter depending on the rest of the schedule. Winning the division is the first step to making a super bowl run, and getting a victory here is extremely crucial to that. 

Week 14 @ New England 

- The 3rd consecutive year the Chiefs will travel to Foxboro in the regular season. If the Patriots perform how they always do, they should be in contention for a playoff bye week and home field advantage at this point. Yes, the Chiefs blew their home field advantage opportunity last year by losing to the Patriots in the AFC Championship, but you'd still much rather host the Pats in the postseason than have to visit them. Obviously we don't know how similar their records will be, but most likely this game will have a big impact on which team has a higher seed than the other. 

Most exciting game of the season:

Week 8 vs. Green Bay

- I was excited for this one before the schedule was even released, but the NFL got me even more pumped up for it by putting it on NBC Sunday Night Football. It really comes down to one thing: Pat Mahomes vs. Aaron Rodgers. Debatably the two most talented QBs in the world facing off. I'm hoping the Chiefs' defense is better this year, but I wouldn't mind them looking like they did last season for this one. I want all the scoring, the fireworks, big plays, all while under the lights at Arrowhead. This will be one of the best games in all the NFL this year. 

Toughest game of the season:

Week 7 @ Denver (TNF)

- After what should be a tough matchup at home against the defending AFC South champion Texans, the Chiefs have a short week as they travel to Denver for Thursday Night Football. Denver is never an easy place to play with the altitude and the crowd atmosphere. Plus, their defense is still dangerous, and they have the most reps against Pat Mahomes out of any team in the league (this will be their 4th game against him). The lack of preparation time combined with the factors of playing at Mile High, this will probably be one of the toughest games they play all season. 

Way-too-early Predictions:

1 Sun, Sep 8 at Jacksonville 12:00 PM 
2 Sun, Sep 15 at Oakland 3:05 PM  
3 Sun, Sep 22 Baltimore 12:00 PM  
4 Sun, Sep 29 at Detroit 12:00 PM 
5 Sun, Oct 6 Indianapolis 7:20 PM (NBC Sunday Night Football)
6 Sun, Oct 13 Houston 12:00 PM 
7 Thu, Oct 17 at Denver 7:20 PM  (Fox Thursday Night Football)
8 Sun, Oct 27 Green Bay 7:20 PM (NBC Sunday Night Football) 
9 Sun, Nov 3 Minnesota 12:00 PM  
10 Sun, Nov 10 at Tennessee 12:00 PM
11 Mon, Nov 18 at L.A. Chargers 7:15 PM (ESPN Monday Night Football in Mexico)
12 *BYE
13 Sun, Dec 1 Oakland 12:00 PM 
14 Sun, Dec 8 at New England 3:25 PM 
15 Sun, Dec 15 Denver 12:00 PM
16 Sun, Dec 22 at Chicago 7:20 PM (NBC Sunday Night Football)
17 Sun, Dec 29 L.A. Chargers 12:00 PM 

12-4 Record

- This schedule is super tough. There isn't a single easy game on the schedule, and the closest we get to one is @ Detroit and I think the Lions will be a lot better than they were last year. 12-4 would be exceptional, and hopefully it comes with a division championship. 

Jace Sternberger vs. Dawson Knox

There is one position on the Chiefs offense that has not been utilized to its full potential in the Andy Reid era, and I don't think fans understand the impact a significant upgrade could make. TE2, more specifically the 2nd TE alongside All-Pro Travis Kelce in double TE sets, has been occupied by Demetrius Harris since 2015. He has been the best play maker at the spot out of the two that preceded him, although that is comparing him to 30 year old Anthony Fasano and 10 games of James O'Shaugnessy. Offensive mastermind Andy Reid loves using multiple TE sets, and it is a big advantage when you break it down: Defenses will have a particular personnel on the field based on what the offense has in their huddle, and multiple TEs traditionally suggest a tight formation with a run play as the biggest possibility. Defenses will substitute accordingly, but Andy will mess around and go empty spread with the TEs lined up as WRs. This automatically creates mismatches in the secondary. When the defense tries to catch on and adjust who's on the field, Andy will tighten the formation and run into a box filled with defensive backs rather than linebackers. Ideally, the TEs should be good at both receiving and run blocking for this reason. Travis Kelce is inconsistent in the blocking department, but is obviously an elite pass catcher. Demetrius Harris is inconsistent in both departments, and makes at least one bonehead play a game that always reminds me why I'm passionate about the point of this piece.

WE NEED AN UPGRADE AT TE2!

It is absolutely overdue and it is the perfect draft class to find one. The 2019 TE Draft class is widely regarded as extremely top heavy and deep, with prospects like T.J. Hockensen and Noah Fant projecting as surefire first round picks. With what the Chiefs draft plan should be, I prefer going into the deeper part of the class rather than the top tier. Brett Veach and the front office has already made it known that they are looking into drafting one. Two prospects they have officially met with are Texas A&M TE Jace Sternberger and Ole Miss TE Dawson Knox. Sternberger also has an additional visit to KC in April. They are two of my favorite TEs in the class, Jace projecting closer to the 1st round and Knox being a Round 3 pick at best, and by the end of this piece, I will tell you who I prefer as a potential Chiefs TE2.

Jace Sternberger 

Jace is a 4 year Junior from Kingfisher, OK. He was a 3 sport athlete in High School, including playing both sides of the ball and winning a state championship his junior year. He originally attended the University of Kansas, and had one redshirt year before playing very seldom his first year. He ended up transferring to Northeastern Oklahoma A&M for one season before being a gem of a find for Jimbo Fisher at Texas A&M. He immediately impressed by earning team MVP honors during spring camp and he didn't stop there. Sternberger ended the season leading the team in every receiving category, with 48 catches, 832 yards, 17.33 yards per catch, 10 TDs, and 64 yards per game. He was named a consensus 1st team All-American and was 1st team All-SEC. The team awarded Jace the Offensive Top Newcomer Award, Offensive MVP Award and Strength and Conditioning Offensive Aggie Award.

He attended the scouting combine and measured out as 6'4" , 251 pounds , 9.75 inch hands, 32.13 inch arms, and a 77.25 inch wingspan. He posted a 4.75 second 40 yard dash, 17 reps on the bench press, a 31.5 inch vertical, a 9'5" broad jump, a 7.19 second 3 cone drill, a 4.31 second 20 yard shuttle and a 12.09 second 60 yard shuttle.

He has good straight ahead speed for a TE and it's displayed here. He is very smooth both in his route running and as a ball carrier after the catch.

 

 Smooth route here, good speed bending around the defender but can't finish the very difficult catch.

 Good route run here quickly embarrassing a LB. The advantage of being a TE2 is you would get these types of matchups, and Sternberger is the type to fully take advantage of the mismatch with a slower LB on him.

A defender draped all over him, he still manages to go up and get it. He is consistently strong at the catch point.

 You can trust him to go get a contested grab around the sticks like this play. His route could be more defined, but his natural catching ability makes up for it.

 Shows off his playmaking ability and athleticism here. There aren't a lot of TEs that can execute that subtle speed cut to avoid the first attempted tackler, and with the way KC's offense can spread a defense out, one missed tackler can result in big plays like this one. 

His blocking isn't a strength in his play, but he does show good fundamentals and finishes his block all the way through here. 

 

 Takes out two defenders here on the cut block. Jace doesn't need to be a great blocker right away as a TE2, but you see potential that gives you hope he can develop that skill if/when he has to eventually be the TE1.

Dawson Knox

Dawson is also a 4 year Junior. His hometown is Brentwood, TN, where he had limited exposure on the football field due to a season ending ankle injury that happened halfway through the first game of his senior season. He was actually playing as the starting QB when that happened, even though he had previously been a receiver. A partial reason for the switch was an abrupt growth spurt of 4 inches and 50 pounds between his junior and senior football seasons. He also participated in Track, and was the champion of the school's Dunk Contest. He redshirted his first year at Mississippi, and barely found the field in his first eligible season. He then came onto the scene his sophomore year with 9 starts and a few games that earned him onto Pro Football Focus's SEC Team of the Week. He came into his junior year a Preseason 3rd team All-SEC pick, and on the Mackey Award list. His statistics were extremely underwhelming though, and totaled out to only 15 catches, 284 yards, and 0 TDs. Dawson was not able to catch a single TD in his college career. He did have 3 teammates at WR that will most likely be drafted in April, including two that could be first rounders. Regardless, it was an underwhelming season for Knox, and he decided to leave early.

He attended the scouting combine and measured out as 6'4" 3/8 , 254 pounds, 9.75 inch hands, 33.5 inch arms, and a 80.5 wingspan. At the combine, he totaled 16 reps on bench press, a 34.5 inch vertical, a 7.12 second 3 cone drill, and a 4.27 second 20 yard shuttle. At his Pro Day, he ran a 4.57 second 40 yard dash and posted a 10'2" broad jump.

 Dawson probably isn't as strong as he needs to be to excel at blocking at the pro level, but he does show good technique with his hand placement and the way he drives his feet. He does finish well, and there are tons of examples like this one below.

  

 He played a ton of snaps at the H-Back position, and he was tasked with being a pulling lead blocker regularly. He executed here by staying square to the LOS, setting his feet well and establishing a good base to stonewall the ILB.

 

 Here he again has the responsibility as the pulling lead blocker from the H-Back position, and he overwhelms Mack Wilson , a potential top 3 ILB in this Draft Class, with momentum coming downhill. He engages and pancakes him. 

Ole Miss had Knox lining up everywhere, including here as an outside WR. We all know how Andy loves versatility at all skill positions, and he shows at least above average quickness in and out of brakes and overall route running ability.

 

 Good speed coming across on the drag here. He doesn't look too comfortable dodging tacklers in open field though.

 

 Makes an impressive catch out of his frame behind him here, and stays on his feet for a few more yards.

 

 Another example of catching outside of his frame. In 4 games watching Knox I didn't see any drops. He was severely underutilized at Ole Miss. 

After evaluating both of these guys in the perspective that they would be the TE2 in the Chiefs offense immediately, I think Jace Sternberger has the highest ceiling for a receiving impact. That being said, Dawson Knox shows good enough ability in the pass game, and his blocking potential is much greater than Jace's. I think Jace will be an immediate impact anywhere he's drafted, and will be worth the pick for whoever makes it, but personally I believe in the fact that Knox was not able to show his true potential in college due to under utilization. I also am a fan of skill players that were former QBs in high school (just like Travis Kelce). They know how their QB sees the game, and usually have good general offensive IQ. All that combined with the fact he will probably fall further in the draft than Sternberger, I hope the Chiefs elect to upgrade their TE2 position by choosing Dawson Knox in the upcoming draft. I wouldn't be upset if Jace was the pick though.