What the 2019 Chiefs Defense may look like

We, as fans, have been calling for the firing of Bob Sutton for the past couple seasons. He's been the scapegoat for the recent defensive woes, and is considered by some the main reason the Chiefs were not able to hoist the Lamar Hunt Trophy this past January, or even the Lombardi in February. There was only celebration when the Chiefs announced his time was up. You can't say the same about the reaction when Steve Spagnuolo was given the job. There were believers, but also skeptics and those that opposed. He has had success at the NFL level, but in short stints. The years between were not so great. There's an argument for and against the hire. If you are hesitating to get behind the new defensive regime, try to remember back to Fall 2018...

Remember how embarrassing that side of the ball was. Remember the Devonte Booker TD in Week 4 when our attempted tacklers looked like High School JV. Remember the score of the first two losses of the season: 40-43 and 51-54! Remember Philip Rivers throwing a wide open, game winning 2 point conversion because 2 defenders ran with the same man. Remember Tom Brady and the Patriots marching up and down the field in the AFC Championship. Remember the instant reaction of knowing the game was a loss once New England won the overtime coin toss.

Once you remember all those painful memories, you realize that you're just glad Bob Sutton is gone, and who even cares who the replacement is, right?

The point is, Chiefs Kingdom has been calling for an overhaul on defense for years. It's finally here, and some are shy to the plan. The recent cuts had to happen. Both Houston and Berry had too high of a cap hit, Ford wasn't in the long term plans, and anyone else not returning shouldn't be missed. I get it, losing all these big names at once is scary, but if they want to change the defensive identity, improve the unit as a whole, and switch up the philosophy, then it's time to get younger and cheaper.

They have added 4 potential 2019 starters already in Free Agency:

S Tyrann Matheiu

LB Damien Wilson

DE Alex Okafor

CB Bashaud Breeland

With these new pieces added into the mix, the following is what I think the 2019 Defense would look like right now in the base 4-3 that Spagnuolo runs:

What I think the 2019 Defense would look like right now in the 4-3 Nickel that Spagnuolo runs:

Looking at this starting group, it's obvious that there is still work to be done. When Mathieu was signed, Nate Taylor of The Athletic reported that the Chiefs intended to play him at the FS position. While he is capable, and will undoubtedly play snaps there at times, he needs to be the main SS in order to take full advantage of his athleticism and instincts closer to the Line of Scrimmage. If they do intend to play him primarily deep, Jordan Lucas would be my favorite to play SS. I believe Watts is primed to win the FS role over the other suitors on the roster if Tyrann is the SS, but that doesn't include the potential draft pick brought in. Look for that position to be upgraded in the draft, although it's tough to determine how long they'll wait on draft weekend to address it.

The CB group has promise, but should not be a finished product. Fuller and Breeland would be a solid pairing in the base, but when a 3rd CB is needed, you leave a young, 2nd year UDFA out on the perimeter (Ward). Don't get me wrong. I was a big fan of what Chavarius did down the stretch of the season. He made a few plays in the Indianapolis playoff game that got me excited for his future, but Chiefs fans know far too well about excitement building around a young, lowkey CB. Marcus Cooper went from a fan favorite to an angry mob instigator. I believe the Chiefs will invest in the CB position very early on in the draft, and I can't imagine it wouldn't be addressed before Day 3. 

The edge rushers almost entice a yawn. Okafor was a very good signing that will give the Chiefs a consistent presence in both the run and pass game every down. Speaks' ability is more up in the air, and I've written previously about how he can improve this upcoming season so I won't get into it. Behind those two, at this moment, is just Tanoh Kpassgnon. The hope is that this 4-3 scheme will fit both of them better, but we can only wait and see. Regardless, the position will need to be added to in the draft, and the buzz lately sounds like that may be where Veach is looking in the first round. Look for names like Clelin Ferrell, Charles Omenihu, and Chase Winovich to be possibilities wherever KC picks first. 

The starting LB group is arguably the most important part of the scheme change. Last year Hitchens was bad in Sutton's 3-4 scheme, but this season should be more comfortable for him. He played in the 4-3 Defense during his previous tenure in Dallas, and played considerably better than he did his first year in the 3-4. He seems like a natural fit for Mike LB due to his familiarity with the scheme and the assumption that he should be the leader of the defense. Dorian O'Daniel seems like a great fit for the weakside LB, a position that asks for athleticism and coverage skills, both things O'Daniel has shown in his young career. The new addition, Damien Wilson, came from the same 4-3 scheme Hitchens was a part of on the Cowboys, and fits well for what the strongside LB is asked to do. I'm not so sure he'll end up as the starter when September comes though. The Sam LB position is a very important spot in this particular style of defense, and if the Chiefs want to have a stronger defensive unit, they need to make sure this specific LB position is played by a high impact player. 

The interior DL group is top heavy with Jones, an all-pro player with elite interior pass rushing skills, and Nnadi, a 2nd year former NT that looked as good as he could in the role he played last year. Xavier Williams could come in to training camp and beat out Nnadi for those 1 Tech snaps, but he didn't impress nearly as much as Nnadi did last year. The depth behind those 3 is weak, so count on a Day 3 pick to be used. 

The Chiefs Defense is far from the squad we'll see when the 2019 season kicks off. The draft will bring in more rotational pieces, and possibly a starter or two. The thing to really look out for is the possibility of a big trade coming. The cap space KC has allows for another big contract to be taken on, but it could also just be for potential contract extensions for Chris Jones and Tyreek Hill. We will see what happens, but the most important thing to remember is that the Chiefs are entering next year with a new defensive staff and philosophy, and that's what we, as Chiefs fans, wanted all along. 

Tyrann Mathieu, The Honey Badger

Brett Veach and the Chiefs' front office kicked off the 2019 offseason Monday with an unsuspected, but exciting signing. Soon to be 27 year old Tyrann Mathieu, AKA "The Honey Badger," will be a Kansas City Chief, agreeing to a 3 year, $42 million contract with $14 million guaranteed. It is especially interesting considering they had to outbid Houston for him, a city that Mathieu called his "second home." He signed a 1 year, $7 million deal to play there last offseason. KC did pursue him that spring, but ultimately did not have the cap space to match Houston's offer. It's obvious Veach wanted the former LSU Tiger and Heisman Finalist, and he proved it this offseason by offering a bigger per year salary than what the Texans put on the table, even though it sounds like their offer was longer term. There was no love lost from Houston though, as now former teammates and area media members used yesterday as a chance to praise and thank Mathieu for his short time there.

Statistics

According to Nate Taylor, Chiefs beat writer for The Athletic, Mathieu was KC's highest ranked free agent among available players due to the fact that he graded as an above-average defender in all categories. At 5'9" and 174 pounds, he has been the definition of versatile his entire career, but especially in 2018. Per PFF, Tyrann played over 300 snaps each at slot CB, free safety, and box safety. In fact, he registered at least one snap at each of the following positions during this past season: OLB (162 snaps), ILB (58), Outside CB (20), and even Defensive Tackle!! (4 snaps). Taylor reported that the Chiefs' plan is to have him be the deep safety, a position he hasn't exclusively played but is certainly capable. While that will be the plan, there is no doubt Mathieu will be all over the defensive backfield in Kansas City.

The Honey Badger has had a productive career according to the Pro Football Focus grading system. In 2013, his rookie year, he had an overall grade of 84.6, good enough to earn a 1st team All-Pro spot from PFF's perspective. For comparison, that grade would've ranked 6th among NFL safeties in 2018. His best year came in 2015, when he ranked as the #10 overall player in the NFL, according to PFF grades, with a 90.7 overall grade. He had a career high 5 INTs, 1 TD, 17 passes defended, and 11 tackles for loss. He was also 1st team All-Pro that season. He was so good in 2015 that he graded out as the best CB in the NFL with a 91.6 grade when in that position, even though he wasn't a full time CB. For 2018, Tyrann was the 21st overall safety per PFF, but posted a top 5 grade for his position in run defense. He was 7th among safeties with total snaps played, and 6th in pass coverage snaps. His 2018 season consisted of 2 INTs, 8 passes defended, 1 fumble recovery, a career high 3 sacks and 89 tackles, 5 tackles for loss and 4 QB hits. His grades would've been the highest among Chiefs' safeties in 2018 overall, in run defense, as a pass rusher, and in coverage. No matter how you spin the statistics, it's pretty obvious The Honey Badger will be an immediate upgrade to what KC has had at safety in recent seasons.

His injury history will obviously be talked about. He has been placed on the IR three separate times in his career, the latest coming towards the end of the 2016 season with a shoulder injury. While that justifies concern, he has started every game the past 2 seasons for the Cardinals and Texans, a trend Chiefs fans hope continues.

Corresponding Effects on the Roster

All the excitement for Mathieu comes with tough decisions that now need to be made. Ryan Scott Hall, co-host of the Amateur Hour Podcast (a must listen if you're a Chiefs fan) made a good point on Twitter about the current cap situation at the safety position.

20% of the salary cap invested in one position is rarely heard of, and not considered an efficient use of cap space. In my opinion, the first corresponding decision is easy: Cut Daniel Sorensen. He has been a good player in his role, but there's no reason to pay him that money. He is easily replaceable. The next move isn't as easy to make, although some Chiefs fans would disagree. It's time to cut Eric Berry, like this week. If KC wants to have as much cap space usable as possible, they'll need to designate Berry as a post June 1st cut by Friday, March 15, or $7.25 million of his contract will become guaranteed and not available for use to sign other free agents or draft picks. The thought of a healthy Berry and Tyrann Mathieu as a safety duo is very intriguing, and debatably the best pair at that position in the league, but it's nearly impossible to have confidence that EB will be ready for a full 2019 season after only playing in parts of 4 games the past 2 seasons. It will be a mournful day in Chiefs Kingdom if they do decide to part ways with their former All-Pro safety, but great teams don't invest money into players that can't get on the field. If the Chiefs want to be true contenders for the near future, they need to utilize the cap space Berry is taking up. If those two moves occur, expect Eric Murray, Jordan Lucas, and Armani Watts to fill out the rest of that position group, along with a potential draft pick in April. 

Now let's check out what The Honey Badger looks like on the field. 

2018 Film Analysis

The first thing that I notice when watching Mathieu's film is his tenacity and aggressiveness moving downhill for tackles. Flies at the pass catcher as soon as he recognizes that's where the ball is going, doesn't give the ball carrier a chance to avoid him. 

Even in the run game, he explodes down the ally and finishes tackles behind the line of scrimmage. 

His downhill speed is illustrated laterally as well, here when he's in coverage at deep safety. Reacts to the QB's eyes, locates the WR, and does his best to disrupt the catch. 

It's not just downhill where he shows how fast he is. His athleticism allows him to never be out of a play, using his speed to chase down ball carriers when he needs to. 

Don't let Tyrann's height and weight fool you. He plays bigger than his size. He'll put a shoulder into the stomach and attempt to bury a runner into the ground when he has the chance.

He doesn't have consistent tackling technique, and it can bite him in the ass at times, but you'll never have to question his hustle. 

Tyrann's natural instinct is on full display in his pass rush snaps. His feel for the timing of the snap, the intuition to know how to manipulate the LT's set, the subtle change of direction to mislead the RB on his blocking path, it all shows here. 

A lot of the same here. He disguises his intentions very well, which causes the RB to guess wrong on where he's coming from. 

His timing of the snap makes this whole play. If it's any slower or mistimed, the RT may have a chance to get in his way more. 

Shows good reps in man coverage. Trusts his athleticism and his ball skills to make plays on the pass. 

His small stature causes issues when covering bigger receivers at times though. He tries to make up for it with his natural aggressiveness, but sometimes the size difference is too much to overcome. Here he draws a holding penalty while covering 6'4" 250 pound David Njoku. This call could go either way, to be fair. 

Resorts to grabbing the jersey here while having a tough time covering TE Jordan Reed.

This wasn't a terrible hold, but too much hand activity draws the flag. 

Obviously, The Honey Badger isn't exactly the college aged Honey Badger. He's still a playmaker, but I imagine a 19 year old Tyrann turns this into a pick 6, or at least a big INT return. 

Then again, this is a pretty nice reaction and catch to create a turnover. 

Chiefs fans have every reason to be excited about this signing, especially when they remember watching the defense last year. The secondary lacked energy and passion. Turnovers weren't created as much as the past. At times, specifically against the Patriots, they were just bullied. Tyrann Mathieu can't turn a bad secondary into a good one by himself, but his leadership along with the new defensive scheme should be enough to take the performance from the defensive backs and turn it up a notch. 

The parting of Ford and Houston, and what it could mean for Breeland Speaks and Tanoh Kpassgnon

The Chiefs have made it pretty obvious to the NFL that both Justin Houston and Dee Ford are on the trade block. My original thought was that they'd get rid of one or the other, but reports from trustworthy sources suggest they're willing to move on from both. Houston makes sense. He costs too much, and they will inevitably release him, so why not try to get some return? Ford is a little more head scratching. The franchise tag was placed, allowing him one more year to try and prove he's worth a long term deal. He was one of the most productive pass rushers in the NFL in 2018, and sounds satisfied with the franchise tag. The defensive scheme is changing, but the Wide 9 DE on the weak side of a Spagnuolo defense is a good spot for Ford. All that being said, the Chiefs have entered a new era , and a complete overhaul of the defense shouldn't be too surprising.

Without Houston or Ford, the next two EDGE defenders in line would be the past two draft classes' 2nd round picks: Breeland Speaks and Tanoh Kpassgnon. Neither has been much of a contributor in their careers so far. Speaks played over KPass in 2018 when Houston was hurt, and registered 1.5 sacks in the 4 games he started. Kpassgnon went from minimal playing time to the inactive list by the end of 2018, only having 1 TFL and 1 QB hit in his season box score. This information is discouraging when considering the Chiefs as Super Bowl contenders in 2019. Their pass rush was the one bright spot defensively last year, and now it'll be headed by two players that have combined for 3.5 sacks in their career? Yikes.

While pessimism is justified, I believe there is reason to be optimistic about both Speaks and KPass taking steps forward in 2019. First of all, the scheme change. The Chiefs have been a base 3-4 for the entire Andy Reid era, but new Defensive Coordinator Steve Spagnuolo runs a base 4-3 over, the over indicating that the Sam LB will be closer to the line of scrimmage on the strong side. Yes, I understand it won't entirely change the defense because most defenses are only in their base formation 30% of the time. That doesn't mean their positional philosophy won't change. Speaks and Kpassgnon were misfit at 3-4 OLB, and practiced at that spot with all the coverage responsibilities and the 2 point stance and everything that comes with being a linebacker. That's different than the 4-3 DE position they both played in college, where they were never asked to stand up or cover or worry about some of the duties an OLB would have. Practicing as a legitimate 4-3 DE and focusing solely on being a down lineman should make it easier on both guys.

Also, they both fit the mold for what Spagnuolo has looked for in the past at his defensive end position. Huge humans. Jason Pierre-Paul, Justin Tuck, Mathias Kiwanuka, Robert Ayers to name a few. Yes, these guys are more accomplished than Speaks and KPass, but they are physically similar, and it's possible that Spags was a big reason why we know their names. Hopefully he can have that kind of positive impact on our edge rushers.

Finally, and probably the most obvious point, is that they're still young. Kpassagnon will be 25 when the season starts, and Speaks will be 23. They were both drafted as developmental projects, and haven't truly proven anything positive or negative yet; we haven't seen them prepare and play as a starter. They're at a good malleable age where they can still be molded into what the Chiefs need, and the hire of former Patriots Defensive Line Coach Brendan Daly should give fans and the organization confidence that the best can be brought out of Tanoh and Breeland. The Patriots have been notorious for getting production out of lesser names, and Daly is a big reason why former Patriot and free agent Trey Flowers will end up getting a big contract this offseason.

I didn't write this piece because I am a big fan of either player. They have shown flashes, but nothing that warrants confidence in them being our starting DEs for a Super Bowl run in 2019. I am just choosing to be optimistic, and these points show the path to how these two could end up being good players in Kansas City.

Potential Pick at 29: Chauncey Gardner-Johnson

The Chiefs will most likely address the defense with their first round pick. I would prefer a CB, but depending on how the rest of the offseason goes, Safety could be in play as well. It doesn't look to be the strongest Safety draft class, but one name is starting to heat up, especially after a good overall showing at the scouting combine. The Chiefs, along with every other NFL team, met with him in Indianapolis. There's a reason he was a popular interview: he looks the part of a starter at Box Safety that can come down to the slot in Nickel. Depending on how the rest of the offseason goes, KC could absolutely need a player like this prospect.

Chauncey Gardner-Johnson

Measurables

Height: 5-10 7/8

Weight: 210

Hands: 9 2/8

Arm: 30 7/8

Wingspan: 74

He has the prototypical size for the S/CB hybrid position he'd play. Nothing that stands out. 

Combine Results

40 time: 4.48 seconds

Bench: 17 reps

Vertical: 36 inches

Broad Jump: 9'9"

3 Cone: 7.03 seconds

20 yard shuttle: 4.20 seconds

None of his numbers impress you, none were even in the top 15 of the DBs. His athleticism pops out a lot more on the field than it did at the combine.

Analysis

CGJ showed snaps as a deep safety in 2017, but in 2018 he played mostly in the Slot CB position or as a Box Safety coming off the edge. The first thing that pops out on tape is his speed. He shows it in bursts and in across field pursuits.

His quickness coupled with that speed gives WRs fits when trying to block him. 

He shows the aggressiveness you want in a box safety in the run game, using his downhill momentum to successfully penetrate the backfield and make a play. 

He forces a hold here by attacking the blocker and overpowering him to his outside shoulder

 

 Gives off the impression that he likes to hit, that's for sure. A DB with a swagger or attitude is a plus. 

Just a good looking open field tackler. 

I mentioned that he played deep safety in the 2017 season. He showed promise there with a few plays, including this goal line INT. Reads the QB's eyes all the way and makes a play on the ball. 

His aggressiveness was still on display as a deep safety. WRs don't like taking hits like these, and they'll remember who delivered them. 

His man to man skills aren't fully polished. He has trouble in spots turning his hips in time on deep routes and makes it difficult on himself to recover. But there are flashes, and he displays good awareness of  what he needs to do in coverage, specifically where his safety is on this deep crosser. He trails knowing his safety will be over the top, and eliminates any window to throw to his man. 

His explosion out of his breaks is on display in all aspects of his game, including man coverage. 

Depending on what the Chiefs do in Free Agency, CGJ may not even make sense to draft in the first round. He has a specific role as a box safety, and it feels more and more like KC will address that position before the draft. If they don't, I'd love to see Chauncey Gardner-Johnson in the role, and I think he'd make an immediate impact in the new defensive scheme.