Friday, March 29, 2019

What the 2019 Chiefs Defense may look like

We, as fans, have been calling for the firing of Bob Sutton for the past couple seasons. He's been the scapegoat for the recent defensive woes, and is considered by some the main reason the Chiefs were not able to hoist the Lamar Hunt Trophy this past January, or even the Lombardi in February. There was only celebration when the Chiefs announced his time was up. You can't say the same about the reaction when Steve Spagnuolo was given the job. There were believers, but also skeptics and those that opposed. He has had success at the NFL level, but in short stints. The years between were not so great. There's an argument for and against the hire. If you are hesitating to get behind the new defensive regime, try to remember back to Fall 2018...

Remember how embarrassing that side of the ball was. Remember the Devonte Booker TD in Week 4 when our attempted tacklers looked like High School JV. Remember the score of the first two losses of the season: 40-43 and 51-54! Remember Philip Rivers throwing a wide open, game winning 2 point conversion because 2 defenders ran with the same man. Remember Tom Brady and the Patriots marching up and down the field in the AFC Championship. Remember the instant reaction of knowing the game was a loss once New England won the overtime coin toss.

Once you remember all those painful memories, you realize that you're just glad Bob Sutton is gone, and who even cares who the replacement is, right?

The point is, Chiefs Kingdom has been calling for an overhaul on defense for years. It's finally here, and some are shy to the plan. The recent cuts had to happen. Both Houston and Berry had too high of a cap hit, Ford wasn't in the long term plans, and anyone else not returning shouldn't be missed. I get it, losing all these big names at once is scary, but if they want to change the defensive identity, improve the unit as a whole, and switch up the philosophy, then it's time to get younger and cheaper.

They have added 4 potential 2019 starters already in Free Agency:

S Tyrann Matheiu

LB Damien Wilson

DE Alex Okafor

CB Bashaud Breeland

With these new pieces added into the mix, the following is what I think the 2019 Defense would look like right now in the base 4-3 that Spagnuolo runs:



What I think the 2019 Defense would look like right now in the 4-3 Nickel that Spagnuolo runs:



Looking at this starting group, it's obvious that there is still work to be done. When Mathieu was signed, Nate Taylor of The Athletic reported that the Chiefs intended to play him at the FS position. While he is capable, and will undoubtedly play snaps there at times, he needs to be the main SS in order to take full advantage of his athleticism and instincts closer to the Line of Scrimmage. If they do intend to play him primarily deep, Jordan Lucas would be my favorite to play SS. I believe Watts is primed to win the FS role over the other suitors on the roster if Tyrann is the SS, but that doesn't include the potential draft pick brought in. Look for that position to be upgraded in the draft, although it's tough to determine how long they'll wait on draft weekend to address it.

The CB group has promise, but should not be a finished product. Fuller and Breeland would be a solid pairing in the base, but when a 3rd CB is needed, you leave a young, 2nd year UDFA out on the perimeter (Ward). Don't get me wrong. I was a big fan of what Chavarius did down the stretch of the season. He made a few plays in the Indianapolis playoff game that got me excited for his future, but Chiefs fans know far too well about excitement building around a young, lowkey CB. Marcus Cooper went from a fan favorite to an angry mob instigator. I believe the Chiefs will invest in the CB position very early on in the draft, and I can't imagine it wouldn't be addressed before Day 3. 

The edge rushers almost entice a yawn. Okafor was a very good signing that will give the Chiefs a consistent presence in both the run and pass game every down. Speaks' ability is more up in the air, and I've written previously about how he can improve this upcoming season so I won't get into it. Behind those two, at this moment, is just Tanoh Kpassgnon. The hope is that this 4-3 scheme will fit both of them better, but we can only wait and see. Regardless, the position will need to be added to in the draft, and the buzz lately sounds like that may be where Veach is looking in the first round. Look for names like Clelin Ferrell, Charles Omenihu, and Chase Winovich to be possibilities wherever KC picks first. 

The starting LB group is arguably the most important part of the scheme change. Last year Hitchens was bad in Sutton's 3-4 scheme, but this season should be more comfortable for him. He played in the 4-3 Defense during his previous tenure in Dallas, and played considerably better than he did his first year in the 3-4. He seems like a natural fit for Mike LB due to his familiarity with the scheme and the assumption that he should be the leader of the defense. Dorian O'Daniel seems like a great fit for the weakside LB, a position that asks for athleticism and coverage skills, both things O'Daniel has shown in his young career. The new addition, Damien Wilson, came from the same 4-3 scheme Hitchens was a part of on the Cowboys, and fits well for what the strongside LB is asked to do. I'm not so sure he'll end up as the starter when September comes though. The Sam LB position is a very important spot in this particular style of defense, and if the Chiefs want to have a stronger defensive unit, they need to make sure this specific LB position is played by a high impact player. 

The interior DL group is top heavy with Jones, an all-pro player with elite interior pass rushing skills, and Nnadi, a 2nd year former NT that looked as good as he could in the role he played last year. Xavier Williams could come in to training camp and beat out Nnadi for those 1 Tech snaps, but he didn't impress nearly as much as Nnadi did last year. The depth behind those 3 is weak, so count on a Day 3 pick to be used. 

The Chiefs Defense is far from the squad we'll see when the 2019 season kicks off. The draft will bring in more rotational pieces, and possibly a starter or two. The thing to really look out for is the possibility of a big trade coming. The cap space KC has allows for another big contract to be taken on, but it could also just be for potential contract extensions for Chris Jones and Tyreek Hill. We will see what happens, but the most important thing to remember is that the Chiefs are entering next year with a new defensive staff and philosophy, and that's what we, as Chiefs fans, wanted all along. 

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